2003: "bring this war to a successful conclusion..." good start. Oh, shit, he's pulling out the 9/11 argument. "to destroy al Qaeda's terrorist network... we sent our troops into Afghanistan." So when do we invade Saudi Arabia?
2008: The Iraq war took the majority of our resources... no kidding. "we will remove our troops from Iraq by 2011." good.
2009: "Troops in Afghanistan were a fraction of what we had in Iraq... requested reinforcements did not arrive." that's overly generous of him to view Bush's decisions that way.
2010: Huge challenges remain... The Taliban has gained momentum... Our forces lack the support they need... "more serious than [McChrystal] had anticipated." I owe you a mission that is clearly defined for your service."
2012: "I took a long time to review this strategy because you and the American people deserve no less." He does have a way with words, makes Bush look like an inarticulate hick. "I opposed the war in Iraq because of the need for restraint in military power." But now we don't feel that way?
2014: "I've seen first hand the terrible wages of war." "I am convinced our security is at stake in Afghanistan and Pakistan." "This is no idle danger." I think Bacevich's argument still holds, to suggest that the "threat" in AfPak require this surge is pretty damn weak.
2015: "al Qaeda seeks nuclear weapons and they will use them if they get them" Oh bullshit. I really hate this weak-ass statement. It has no credibility.
2016: Sending first wave to south provinces, train the Afghan troops, set the stage to allow us to pull out. That is to say, as they stand up, we will stand down. I've heard this song before.
2018: "Just as we have done in Iraq..." Oh my god. what a dangerous statement. Oh, he means giving the locals back their autonomy. We'll see. "No blank checks... hold people accountable for results..." Or what? We're not going to give them billions of dollars in aid?
2020: GEN David Petraeus looks attentive, sitting in the audience. "We need a strategy that works on both sides of the border." For all this talk about supporting Pakistan, the populace there still hates us for the military operations in the region. "Pakistan people must know that we are on their side to help them" yeah good luck with that message.
2022: "Afghanistan is not Vietnam. We have a 43-nation coalition" (not really - maybe the top 10 are really helping). "We can't maintain the status quo and muddle through" (no but you could change the tactics and not directly combat the Taliban). "We can't just ignore the need for a timeline, it's not sustainable" Well, that's the truth. "I refuse to commit US forces beyond our responsibility, means, and interests."
2025: "We can't afford to simply ignore the costs of these wars... I am committed to addressing these costs as we work to bring down the deficit." "We must rebuild our strength at home" Details please. Oh, he expects Congress to do this (haha)
2026: "None of this will be easy." "Precise and nimble in the use of our military power." "Show our strength in the way we end wars and prevent conflict." Commitments to homeland defense, intel collection, taking away the "tools of mass destruction" (TMDs?)
2029: We have to use diplomacy (Bush officials "what is this word diplomacy?"). Promote our values at home - prohibit torture and close Gitmo (yeah!) Moral source of America's authority. Yes, this is a good thing.
2032: "We have not sought world domination - we do not want to occupy other nations" Well, not since December 2008 at least. Finally some applause from the cadets.
2033: "Our strength doesn't come just from the strength of our arms, it comes from our people. And also from you guys in uniform... of the people, for the people, by the people."
2035: "Remember when we were a united country on 9/12? I refuse to accept that we cannot summon that unity again. We can find a common purpose. We are passing through a time of great trial. Our cause is just, our will unwavering."
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A pretty impressive speech, damn him. I have to admit, as Gordon notes, Obama has consistently said that he was going to add forces to Afghanistan and do the job right. I get that. I think a lot of us thought what he meant was that he was going to announce his exit plans and leave the shit-hole that is Afghanistan. That was not realistic of us, but we had hopes. In our defense, he did use the phrase "finish the job" more than once.
I still think the rationale that the Obama administration uses is shit - that somehow, securing Afghanistan is vital to our interests and that AQ is just chomping at the bits to move back into Afghanistan while eyeing Pakistan's nukes. It's weak, it's not a supportable defense to address violent non-state actors. But at the least, he offered goals, he stated his rationale, and he clearly stated that he's not relying on strictly military power. He demonstrated a basis for using all the elements of national security. And he's committing to start pulling out in mid-July 2011 (none too late to influence the 2012 elections).
So let's see how this all plays out in the next two Friedman units.
UPDATE: GEN McChrystal approves of this strategy. Not a big surprise, he's a good soldier, knows how to salute and move out.
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