Obama's Escalations in Libya

Word from Reuters is that President Obama has authorized covert support to the rebel forces in Libya, even as they retreat from Qaddafi's government forces. But the White House isn't commenting as to whether this includes arming and training the rebels.

Obama said the U.S. had not ruled out providing military hardware to rebels. "It's fair to say that if we wanted to get weapons into Libya, we probably could. We're looking at all our options at this point," he told ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer.

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton insisted to reporters that no decision had yet been taken.

Can I just say what a stupid, bad idea this would be?

“We have seen flickers in the intelligence of potential al-Qaeda” and Hezbollah fighters among opposition forces, U.S. Adm. James Stavridis, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, said in congressional testimony.

Well, as long as it's just flickers. I mean, what could go wrong in giving unstable, young and violent men anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and heavy machine guns? So let's send in CIA teams to liaison with these guys and feel them out? As long as we're not talking about combat operations with US troops - yet. Is it true that no administration has ever figured out how badly our involvement in Vietnam went? Didn't that start off with CIA advisors and special ops teams, too?

Comments

[FDChief]

I think the problem, Jason, is that once you've started hanging our with the working girls at some point you have to either start turning tricks, too, or leave them to their business.

The models this air war is sorta-kinda-based on all depended on having some sort of semi-reliable maneuver units on the ground. When you do, it can work, so when you have Croats and Kurdish peshmarga to cut the throats of the guys whose units you disrupt from the air you get somewhere. Where you don't, as we didn't in southern Iraq, the enemy you and your local "allies" are up against can send in the tough guys and club "your" wogs like baby harp seals.

I think everyone not trying to outright sell the air war recognized that this rebel rabble was a shambolic gagglefuck (which, acording to one of my old ANCOC instructors is distinguishable from a "clusterfuck" by its ability to displace in a nontactical manner. A "clusterfuck", OTOH, is entirely immobile.) that would be unlikely to overcome even the Third World thug-army Gaddafi fielded unless they were hand-led to the gates of Tripoli. So this was ALWAYS a better-than-80% probability from the moment the first A/C left the ground.

So I'd say you can either argue that this entire notion was not a good idea (which I would; lovely people, Libyans, but unless they want to sign a treaty with the U.S. and become our official BFFs they have to just go and win their civil war for themselves...) or accept that this pretty much was going to happen as part of the deal.

The difference I see from the RVN is that (at least at the moment) nobody in the U.S. with any intellectual throw-weight (meaning that Gingrich and the usual GOP suspects can be ignored) is arguing that we HAVE to prevent this domino from falling. So, in the words of a former SF type, we can help them out, try and win hearts and minds, and then when everything goes south blow the hell out of everything we've built for them and grab a hat.

Mind you, I could be wrong; the quality of geopolitical thought inside the Beltway lacks a certain Marshallesque incisiveness these days...

[russell1200]

No it did not start with the CIA. It started when the French got their butts kicked by the locals.

The Italians did not get their butts kicked by the Libyans. It took them 20 years from when they invaded in 1911 to do it, but they did pacify the local populace.

Of course their attack did instigate the start of the final Balkan War (3rd?) which was the backdrop for shooting an unpopular Austrian Arch-Duke. But Austria no longer has Arch-Dukes, so we need not be concerned with that sort of fall out.

And if it took the Italians 20 years, it should only take us 10. Maybe even 8 since we will have the much easier task (it is April 1st) of nation building versus their methods of driving the natives into the desert and then building a wall/berm to keep them from coming back. For that matter, if the panty-waste-do-gooders would let us, Halliburton could probably re-build Mussolini‘s wall for a fraction of the cost and much quicker. Any of which is a distinctive improvement over our current record in Iraq or Afghanistan.

So please stop with all the negativity. No Arch-Dukes, speedier resolution- it is all good.