Dick Morris was on Faux News Channel last week promoting the idea that Japan needs to build its own nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. He is, of course, certifiably off his rocker.
The irony, of course, is that North Korea is probably the single state in the world most vulnerable to international sanctions. It produces no energy of its own. If China chose to bring the country to its knees, it could do so in a heartbeat. But will they?
China is worried about triggering a flood of North Korean refugees across its borders and tends to be protective of its erstwhile ally.
But the real pressure point on China is Japan. If the Japanese signal that they will respond to the North Korean nuclear test with a decision to change its constitution and develop nuclear weapons itself, the impact on both China and North Korea will be intense.
One of the main points of the Nonproliferation Treaty is that the US government provides security assurances to Japan so that it doesn't build a nuclear weapon. But beyond that point, why in the world would a nation who had been scarred by nuclear weapons and made it a point of national pride to promote nuclear nonproliferation even think of such an option? Of course, it wouldn't. And for Morris (and Charles Krauthammer) to even suggest this in public is ludicrous.



Sanctions put more pressure on the two million or so people near famine conditions, whilst 28% or so of the country's GDP goes on what N. Korea sees as it's military priorities. China could knock all this on the head by giving more aid, and behind-the-scenes "diplomacy"... I don't think that refugees would be accepted- China would stop that regardless of world opinion; she has enough problems.
R.
Posted by: Ray | 01 June 2009 at 08:46 AM