Nuclear Mondays

War News Update has been following the nuke news, and last week he remarked on the National Intelligence Council's dire prediction of nuclear threats in the future.

"The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons," said the report by the National Intelligence Council.

To which he responds,

I have been reading these types of reports since the 1970s. They just take what is the popular news story for the moment, and then wrap it up into their report. In short .... they are just professionals who get paid just regurgitating what they read in The New York Times (and other such publications), and compiled it into a report. I should know .... I was employed doing this 20 years ago. My specialty was environment impacts, and the client was the Canadian Federal Government.

In the 1970s it was shortages in food and energy, a result of overpopulation. The 1980s was acid rain and nuclear proliferation. The 1990s was a peace dividend and continuing prosperity. The 2000 period will be remembered as the internet age and global warming.

The next decade .... I predict that the next decade will be a period of economic and financial turmoil and crisis. Wow .... I guess that makes me a (cough cough) prophet.

It does seem as if anyone could piece together a threat report these days, especially with nuclear weapons. It's not as if you need any real expertise, just assume that Iran will some day have the nuke and start predicting dire consequences. But it's really strange when you have CIA's new director Leon Panetta and ADM Mike Mullen saying "yep, Iran has enough fissile material for a bomb," and on the other side, ADM (ret) Denny Blair (DNI) and SecDef Bob Gates saying, "hey, relax, it's not an imminent threat."

Meanwhile,Israeli military intelligence suggests that Iran's intentions, whether building nukes or talking with the United States, are irrelevant to the ongoing battle with extremist organizations.

"Iran's plan for the continuation of its nuclear program while simultaneously holding talks with the new Washington administration is being received with caution in the Middle East," continued the Intelligence chief. "The moderates are worried that this approach will come at their expense and will be used by the radical axis to continue to carry out terror activities and rearm. In contrast, those in the radical axis are saying that despite the change in the Americans' stance, they will continue to act against them."

So confusing... but I will continue to suggest that diplomacy, military capability, and containment are all keys to rationally facing this potential future threat. It's not hard, but will require good leadership - and a reduction of breathless rhetoric.