The Washington Times is reporting that alleged bioterrorism experiments have gone wrong for al Qaeda. Obviously this proves that the Graham-Talent WMD Commission was right in its prediction of an upcoming bioterrorist event. Or is it possible that this was just a natural outbreak of bubonic plague and the circumstances have made this a strange story?
The official, who spoke on the condition he not be named because of the sensitive nature of the issue, said he could not confirm press reports that the accident killed at least 40 al Qaeda operatives, but he said the mishap led the militant group to shut down a base in the mountains of Tizi Ouzou province in eastern Algeria.
He said authorities in the first week of January intercepted an urgent communication between the leadership of al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb (AQIM) and al Qaeda's leadership in the tribal region of Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan. The communication suggested that an area sealed to prevent leakage of a biological or chemical substance had been breached, according to the official.
"We don't know if this is biological or chemical," the official said.
The story was first reported by the British tabloid the Sun, which said the al Qaeda operatives died after being infected with a strain of bubonic plague, the disease that killed a third of Europe's population in the 14th century. But the intelligence official dismissed that claim.
Couple weird things about this story. First of all, it came from the Sun, the UK version of the National Enquirer - not exactly a credible source. It quotes a security official as saying “It spreads quickly and kills within hours. This will be really worrying al-Qaeda.” Yeah, ah, not really. Second, plague isn't the easiest biological warfare agent to prepare, even by experts. Bubonic plague has been endemic to parts of Asia and Africa, so it is possible that an individual was bitten by an infected flea, and that the one guy was living with a few others and infected them with pnuemonic plague. Other sources note that there has not been any reported cases of people being infected by plague in Algeria since 2003.
But then what? Are we to believe that there is a lab set up in the Pakistani FATA where infected individuals are being cultured to carry pnuemonic plague into European or American cities? You'd want pnuemonic plague, not bubonic plague, since the former can be spread by air and the latter can not be spread by air. And then one terrorist of them got out, before they could all be released on Europe in mass to spread the Black Death again? This is what Bruce Schneier would call a movie-plot threat scenario.
Then there's the WashTimes article. When you can't tell a chemical from a biological threat, you're not a security expert. No one "seals off" areas to prevent "leakage" from chemical contamination. The article also talks about the British officials arresting men in London for "producing a poison from castor beans known as ricin." Actually, they didn't find any ricin at the London apartment. Comparing ricin plots to making plague is like comparing T-ball to major league baseball. Not the same thing at all, just because both are biologicals.
And wow, let's not make any references to former SecState Powell's presentation on WMD threats to the United Nations, hmmmm? Less said about that speech, the better. Bottom line, mark this one as "fraudulent and overzealous exaggeration of rumors."
UPDATE: A doctor from Algeria weighs via ProMed:
The information (rumor) about the outbreak occurred in mountainous borders between Tizi Ouzou and Bejaia was given by the daily paper in Arabic language "Echorouk" in its on-line edition of 6 Jan 2009. No serious source, health professionals, even more the reference laboratory for plague in Oran (Laboratory for the Plague of the Institute Pasteur of Algeria in Oran) or that of in Algiers (medical bacteriology) had to take seriously these rumors.
So I guess the Graham-Talent WMD Commission's prediction will have to go back on hold...
In New Mexico, we have maybe a dozen cases of plague a year. The prairie dogs have joined up with al-Qaeda.
Posted by: Cheryl Rofer | 22 January 2009 at 08:06 AM
And of course, the source here is an intercept. AQIM or Diet Coke/Mentos plotters would never try to fake out US or UK eavesdropping with disinformation about their awesome capabilities.
Posted by: Frank Naif | 22 January 2009 at 08:34 AM
Putting the "boob" in Boobonic...
Posted by: BobN | 22 January 2009 at 03:20 PM
J,
So what's the deal? At the risk of jinxing you and generally exhibiting bad form, you seem to be the 'go to guy' for Andrew Sullivan for all things CBRN. Can a gig as a 24 hour news talking head be far behind?
Posted by: Belphagor1527 | 22 January 2009 at 05:52 PM
Belphagor - one can only hope, no? Ditch this contractor gig and do some good preaching about WMD stuff. That would be fantastic.
Hear that, media heads? I refuse no unreasonable offers.
Posted by: J. | 22 January 2009 at 07:40 PM
Totally fiction. In fact, it sounds just like a plotline from Tom Clancy's book "Executive Orders.".
In that book, Iranian mullahs infect carriers with Ebola and send them to the U.S.
Isn't that crazy? Almost as crazy as the ending of his prior book, "Debt of Honor", when a Japanese airline pilot seeks revenge and plows his 747 right into the Capitol killing the President and most of Congress.
Airplanes used as weapons? Crazy too.
Posted by: stevie314159 | 22 January 2009 at 08:18 PM
Nice take-down J...
SNi
Posted by: SNi | 22 January 2009 at 08:52 PM