Michael O'Hanlon scores an uncommon hit in talking about the need to address the challenge of nuclear deterrence. He says, fire up the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program and use it as part of the nonproliferation program. It can support the goal of reducing the stockpile while retaining a capable defense infrastructure.
Obama's Catch-22 appears to be to either lose the support of his defense secretary and most Republicans on a crucial arms control vote, or to reverse a campaign pledge and pursue what the world is likely to view as a renewed U.S. drive for nuclear modernization while asking others to show restraint. This double standard infuriates nonnuclear states and weakens our ability to gain support for tougher nonproliferation rules and sanctions on proliferating countries such as Iran and North Korea.
Thankfully, there is another option. The right strategy has two elements: redefine the RRW program as a remanufacture of an older design, and delay that program to allow Obama to create momentum for arms control.
Redefining the RRW might seem like semantics but is, in fact, a reasonable move. The United States developed more conservative weapons designs in the early years of the nuclear era that might be usable. Even if they had to be modified, the designs would remain more "old" than "new." Moreover, building such warheads would not create new capabilities for American war planners but would deprive them of some targeting options they possess today, while emphasizing safety and reliability.
Delaying pursuit of this remanufacturing program would not present a problem. We have little reason to think that today's nuclear arsenal is unreliable. Already, a $5 billion annual program to ensure good stockpile stewardship and reliability is monitoring weapons and remanufacturing parts that show signs of age. Bomb designers are more concerned about the arsenal 25 or 50 years from now; if we delay a few years in building more conservative designs, deterrence will not suffer.
He makes sense - at least, from my moderate perspective. That's amazing, considering his track record, but even blind pigs find the occasional acorn in the forest.
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