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12 November 2008

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I like the new site design.

How would you compare the logistical straw through Pakistan with the straw from Kuwait to Baghdad that was getting attacked (less so now I guess)?

That's a good question. I think it was easier, given the heavy troop presence in Kuwait and Iraq, to monitor the convoys. I remember that there was some concern that, if the Brits pulled out of Basra, convoys going from Kuwait to Baghdad could be ambushed by al Qaeda (or Iraqi criminals) operating out of Basra. But also, when there is five times the personnel and money in Iraq as compared to Afghanistan, I would expect that the challenges of convoy security in Iraq are a lot less than that in Afghanistan.

At least Kuwait was a stable base. The NATO effort is currently dependent to an uncomfortable degree on Pakistani supply routes, which gives the Pakistani government some leverage in its disputes with the US. There really is no other viable option; flying supplies in by air may be feasible right now, but it isn't really practical.

If the Afghanistan effort grows in the way Obama has promised, "uncomfortable" will become "alarming" and "leverage" will become "veto power" because at that point air supply will go from "impractical" to "impossible."

Frankly, I think we've shot our bolt in Afghanistan as much as Iraq. If our client is unable to muster enough popular support to hang on after seven years of pork-barrel spending and active suppression of his opposition on the part of his patrons, then he probably won't ever be viable.

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