Georgia On My Mind

I am not  a Russia expert (as our SecState claims to be), and I'm not going to add much to the commentary about Russia's response to Georgia's push into South Ossetia. My initial thoughts were that Georgia overplayed its hand - whatever the issues with South Ossetia - that it was foolish to send troops and tanks into a region that was closely allied with Russia. There's no doubt that Russia overreacted as well, but it was trying to make a few points: we're back and badder than ever, we don't like former Soviet Union clients going to NATO, and our public loves a strong military. Watch this great video from the BBC: it's an Apache pilot's wet dream.

I don't have any reason to disagree with this WaPo editorial:

Russia's goal is not simply, as it claims, restoring the status quo in South Ossetia. It wants regime change in Georgia. It has opened a second front in the other disputed Georgian territory, Abkhazia, just south of Sochi. But its greatest goal is to replace Saakashvili -- a man Vladimir Putin despises -- with a president who would be more subject to Moscow's influence. As Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt pointed out Saturday, Moscow's rationale for invading has parallels to the darkest chapters of Europe's history. Having issued passports to tens of thousands of Abkhazians and South Ossetians, Moscow now claims it must intervene to protect them -- a tactic reminiscent of one used by Nazi Germany at the start of World War II.

Moscow seeks to roll back democratic breakthroughs on its borders, to destroy any chance of further NATO or E.U. enlargement and to reestablish a sphere of hegemony over its neighbors. By trying to destroy a democratic, pro-Western Georgia, Moscow is sending a message that, in its part of the world, being close to Washington and the West does not pay.

As for Vice President Cheney saying that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered," there will be a great deal of talk, but no action by the West. The Bush and Blair administrations put the "vent" in "preventive war." Putin (because he is in charge, after all) will calmly point to US military actions in the former Yugoslavia and in Iraq and say, "So what's the problem, boys? We're just implementing your national security strategy." And so nothing will be done by this lame-duck administration until Putin decides to pull back. The only questions are how devastated Georgia will be when that happens and how high the casualty count will be.

UDPATE: If you want a more detailed analysis, go see Rob Farley. But I think I get to the bottom line faster.

Comments

[sheerahkahn]

I am of the mind that Putin has had this plan in mind for some time, and the Georgian President just handed him the pretext he's been looking for.
I think we can safely assume that the USSR is on rebuild mode...as for Georgia...welcome back to the USSR, comrade.

[Sam]

I disagree with the opinion piece you cited simply because of the lack of imagination it exhibits. We're not going to succeed at stopping the fighting. Russian forces hold Senaki which they'll use to unify they're two fronts, and they've siezed Gori. They'll be on the outskirts of Tiblisi by this time tomorrow.

We can wring our hands about what a shame this is and demand Russia stop...very, very loudly!, but there's not going to be any point to waiting around to help rebuild the country. Russia knows that a proportionate response would have gained them S. Ossetia but lost them the rest of Georgia, as the populace would have rallied behaind Saakashvili and clamored for NATO support. So they're going to go old-school and destroy their will, erode their support for a seemingly impotent national government, and rub the fact that NATO didn't come to save them in their faces.

This won't end until Georgia offers their uncondititional surrender.

[Ray]

Mr Putin has a crusade in mind. The oil pipeline isn't far away. Its potential vulnerability must now giveEurope and others pause.
Reuters, Monday August 11 2008 gives a short statistical background:
"Britain's BP Plc owns 30.1 percent of BTC,(pipeline) while Azeri state oil company Socar holds 25 percent. Other shareholders include U.S. companies Chevron and ConocoPhillips, Norway's StatoilHydro , Italy's ENI and France's Total.
It is equivalent to 1 per cent of the world's oil production.

Russia won't be frozen out of the G8,either-what would be the point?
It now depends on what Russia asks for and does with the occupation to find out their true intentions.
R.

[the wtf blog]

You guys remember right after 9/11 President Bush addressed the Nation and Congress on tv? He said that as our military went to full def-com Red, Russia lowered their defense to prove to America that it was not involved in the cowardly attack by Islam. That proved to me once and for all that Russians are good people. After all they have never nuked anybody, yet we have nuked Japan twice. Russia this humble American stands behind you 110%.The Georgians attacked you first GRIND THEM DOWN PUTIN kill them all make me proud man. In fact in the New York Times, Putin is quoted as saying that "Georgian Tanks ran over and crushed children". Children Georgia? Take these scum out Russia and show George Bush on how to destroy an enemy. Putin do me a favor and take over the Iraq war bro cause you got the game down man. Our President in 8 years can't crush the sub human race of Muslims. In Fact Mr. Bush is having a good ole at the Olympics while our kids get killed and mangled in Iraq. Never trust a Republican to wage a war. They never have won a world war only democrats can win wars. Nice trade off. Russia keeps Georgia and we get to nuke Iran. Hmm, yea I'm good with it.:)