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23 January 2007

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Surge or no surge, if we are going to win, the restrictions must be lifted on engagement. For pete's bleeping sake, we should have learned from Korea and Vietnam, if you allow areas to exist where the baddies know they will be safe, they will bleed you out. If Maliki stops us from entering Sadr City and massacring the Mahdi Army, we should leave. 90% of the stuff happening in Baghdad comes out of there. And 90% of their stuff comes from Iran. Lock down Baghdad, Hit Sadr City, and put some raids into Iran. I may be an E-4, but anybody has got to believe that Iran is stockpiling that stuff near the border. The flow of weapons is easier to manage that way. And for our pyros in SF, it would be a field trip. Start handing the capitol back to Iraqi units, and let the surge leave.

I didn't clearly express myself in my post. I do support a surge, a significant surge that would allow troops to disengage and pull out (as opposed to the president's plan), allowing the Iraqi troops to take over. From that point of view, I agree with you, Recon, it's always bad to go into a fight half-assed. Not sure I'm up for launching strikes against Iran yet - the Brits don't seem to think anything's coming from there, and certainly there's already enough explosives in Iraq to make IEDs for a decade more.

Recon - I'm with you in spirit for the most part. The half-assed measures we've employed are what got us into this situation in the first place. A paltry deployment of troops to Baghdad won't make an appreciable difference on the security situation there (even with the support of a few hundred thousands Kurds and access to Sadr City).

If we really wanted to impose security, it would take a significant boost in troops, coupled with some undesirable tactics - including forcibly depopulating parts of the country and forming strategic hamlets. It would be ugly, cost a lot more in terms of lives and money, but it would get the job done in a year or two.

As for the Iran bit, I am very skeptical of the veracity of Bush administration claims that Iran is exacerbating the situation in Iraq. It just doesn't seem like it would be in their interest.

If their claims bear out though, the U.S. needs to be very careful about how it proceeds. We have virtually no way of controlling how a conflict with Iran escalates, so I think punitive strikes or any minor military incursions won't be as low-cost as people might think. We might get ourselves into a really ugly shooting war in Khuzestan before we realize it.

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