Public Opinion About Iraq

Kos notes this USA Today article about a Gallup poll, noting that it's "kind of weird, considering the utter lack of progress in the war." The article states:

Most Americans don't believe the United States will succeed in winning the war in Iraq or establishing a stable democracy there, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.

But an ambivalent public also says sending troops to Iraq wasn't a mistake, a sign that most people aren't yet ready to give up on the war.

"There's a lot of conflicting impulses here," says Andrew Kohut, director of the non-partisan Pew Research Center. A Pew poll last week also showed crosscurrents in attitudes toward the Iraq war. "People are giving bleak assessments on the one hand, and on the other hand (they're) saying maybe it was still the right thing to do."

I agree that it's awfully confusing. I like to check the PollingReport.com site for public opinion trends. That recent poll taken by the Pew Research Center (seen at the top of the Iraq section of the website) doesn't clarify things much.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?
7/13-17/2005    Approve - 35%, Disapprove - 57%
7/8-18/2004      Approve - 42%, Disapprove - 53%

Do you think the US made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force against Iraq?
7/13-17/2005   Right Decision - 49%, Wrong Decision - 44%
7/8-18/2004     Right Decision - 52%, Wrong Decision - 43%

How well is the US military effort in Iraq going?
7/13-17/2005 Very/Fairly Well - 52%, Not Too/At All Well - 44%
7/8-18/2004    Very/Fairly Well - 55%, Not Too/At All Well - 42%

Should we keep military troops in Iraq or bring them home as soon as possible?
7/13-17/2005    Keep Troops - 52%, Bring Home - 43%
7/8-18/2004      Keep Troops - 53%, Bring Home - 43%

Does Bush have a clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion?
7/13-17/2005    Has a Plan - 27%, Doesn't Have a Plan - 64%
7/8-18/2004      Has a Plan - 34%, Doesn't Have a Plan - 59%

Do you think the war in Iraq has helped or hurt the war on terrorism?
7/13-17/2005    Helped - 39%, Hurt - 47%
7/8-18/2004      Helped - 43%, Hurt - 45%

So, for the past year a majority of the public doesn't believe that Bush has a good plan, is not handling the war well, and the effort in Iraq is hurting the war on terrorism, but it was okay to invade Iraq, our troops are doing great and ought to finish the job. Yeah. My head hurts. Now I only showed the numbers for the past year, and while one might see a trend working against the Bush administration, it's really not a big trend, considering all the debates over the Iraq war. One might even state that it's pretty negligable. Despite all the last year's debates, arguments, and coverage of the war, there's been practically no movement in public attitudes.

One might suggest that the Congress and the public don't really even look at things like performance metrics, cost of the war in terms of casualties and dollars, or pro and con arguments in the media or blogosphere. Maybe these polls merely reflect the (continued) divided America in which we live, with Repubs sticking with their man through thick or thin, and the Dems set against the Bush administration in a similar locked mindset. And then we have the squishy middle, that 10 percent, that doesn't seem to know what to think... All they can do is push the polls up and down a few points.

Maybe there's more that could be learned if I set all these questions into a four-year bar chart, but I'm not going to do that. If any of you all have theories about these statistics and trends, have at it.

Comments

[matt]

maybe a lot of people who don't approve of the way that Bush is handling the war think he ought to be prosecuting it a little more vigorously. Disapproval of what he's doing doesn't automatically mean that they think it's wrong to do it...

[J.]

I hadn't thought of that, and that's a very frightening thought. I must have instinctively believed that the American public wasn't that bloodthirsty or stupid...

[Alex Urevick-Ackelsberg]

I don't think that it's a question of being bloodthirsty or stupid, more like stuborn. I took a couple of things from this data.

First- people don't like to admit that they were wrong or that they were tricked into doing or supporting something that went terribly wrong. I have a good friend who was extremely pro-invasion before the war, and who I argued extensively with about how stupid of an idea it was to trust Bush to do the things that my friend hoped to see happen. Now he can admit that it was stupid to trust the Bush Administration, but he still refuses to admit that it was wrong to invade. In any conversation that we have about Iraq today he says "But it could have worked." Yeah, an I could go out and win the Mr. Universe contest and win a Nobel Prize- on the same day. Point is- it's impossible to argue against this logic. Of course we could have done things in a way that would have avoided many of the pitfalls we now encounter, and maybe in some bizarro alternate universe we did, but that's really besides the point. It should have been obvious IMHO that Bush would expound all of his energy getting there and then hope for the best, which was already a well documented MO for the Administration (okay, so maybe there is a bit of stupidity in this). Anyway, it's much easier to get people to admit that things aren't good right now then it is to admit that they were partially responsible for the damn mess we're in (by giving support during the leadup to war).

The second thing I take from this is that maybe I've been a little too harsh on Joe "sell working mothers with massive medical debt and deployed reservists to MBNA" Biden. Biden told Kerry that he should say that the war was a good idea but that it was executed poorly, and argument I find pretty stupid myself. But looking at this data it seems like a pretty sizable portion of the public feels the same way. Who knows, maybe we would have real leaders in the White House right now if Kerry had listend to Biden.

[Dave Schuler]

I think that matt is quite correct: much of the American public thinks that we should have used and should be using considerably more force in Iraq (there are Iraqis who think the same things).

[Kira Zalan]

I hope this isn’t just wishful thinking on my part. I hope there are people that understand the consequences of an early withdrawal, and will withstand the mounting pressure of shortsightedness.